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IAUC 5801: 1993e

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                                                  Circular No. 5801
Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams
INTERNATIONAL ASTRONOMICAL UNION
Postal Address: Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams
Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Telephone 617-495-7244/7440/7444 (for emergency use only)
TWX 710-320-6842 ASTROGRAM CAM     EASYLINK 62794505
MARSDEN@CFA or GREEN@CFA (.SPAN, .BITNET or .HARVARD.EDU)


PERIODIC COMET SHOEMAKER-LEVY 9 (1993e)
     Following the remarks on IAUC 5800 concerning the encounter with
Jupiter in July 1994, it should be noted that the 3-deg difference in
p.a. between the comet's direction of approach and the orientation of
the nuclear train should increase immediately before encounter, and
the undersigned's initial estimate is that more than half of the
nuclear train could collide with Jupiter--over an interval approaching
three days.  Preliminary computations by A. Carusi, Rome University,
show that surviving nuclei are likely to remain as satellites of Jupiter
or be thrown closer to the sun on short-period heliocentric
orbits (depending on which side of Jupiter they pass).  It
must be emphasized that a 1994 collision of the train center with Jupiter
is not assured, and in the case of a miss, the 3-deg difference in p.a.
would minimize the chance of collision with any part of the train.

1993 TT     R. A. (2000) Decl.     Delta      r    Elong. Phase      m1
May  13    12 07.45    - 2 04.0    4.755    5.462  130.2    8.1     13.5
     23    12 06.15    - 1 54.9    4.880    5.460  120.2    9.2     13.6
June  2    12 05.98    - 1 52.8    5.019    5.458  110.5   10.0     13.7
     12    12 06.92    - 1 57.8    5.166    5.455  101.2   10.5     13.8
     22    12 08.92    - 2 09.4    5.318    5.453   92.2   10.7     13.8
July  2    12 11.92    - 2 27.5    5.471    5.451   83.5   10.7     13.9
     12    12 15.82    - 2 51.4    5.622    5.448   75.0   10.4     13.9
     22    12 20.53    - 3 20.5    5.766    5.445   66.7    9.9     14.0
Aug.  1    12 25.96    - 3 54.2    5.901    5.443   58.7    9.2     14.0
     11    12 32.03    - 4 31.9    6.025    5.440   50.7    8.3     14.0

     The orbit on IAUC 5800 indicates that the comet was already in
jovicentric orbit before 1992, but this conclusion is very uncertain.
Nevertheless, the following ephemeris may be useful for 1992 searches;
the magnitude is, of course, a pure guess.

1992 TT     R. A. (2000) Decl.     Delta      r    Elong. Phase      m2
Feb.  8    10 48.10    + 6 54.3    4.572    5.498  157.8    3.9     22.4
     18    10 43.94    + 7 22.5    4.522    5.496  169.0    2.0     22.2
     28    10 39.47    + 7 53.1    4.503    5.493  179.4    0.1     22.0
Mar.  9    10 35.02    + 8 24.0    4.515    5.491  168.4    2.1     22.2
     19    10 30.92    + 8 53.1    4.556    5.489  157.4    4.0     22.4
     29    10 27.48    + 9 18.7    4.625    5.486  146.5    5.8     22.5
Apr.  8    10 24.92    + 9 39.3    4.719    5.483  135.9    7.3     22.6


1993 May 22                    (5801)              Brian G. Marsden

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